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CNN Poll: Trump approval slides, matches lowest point of presidency
in United States
Debra AI Prediction
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The people did not want him. He lost the popular vote to Hilary Clinton by almost 3,000,000 votes. After the 2010 midterm elections, Silver concluded that Rasmussen's polls were the least accurate of the major pollsters in 2010, having an average error of 5.8 points and a pro-Republican bias of 3.9 points according to Silver's model.
Now
https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Rasmussen_Reports
https://fivethirtyeight.com/features/can-you-trust-polling-in-the-age-of-trump/
https://projects.fivethirtyeight.com/trump-approval-ratings/?ex_cid=rrpromo
“We are all born ignorant, but one must work hard to remain stupid.” - Benjamin Franklin So flat Earthers, man-made climate change deniers, and just science deniers.
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Dont you?
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Um, I think that is Goober implied.
“We are all born ignorant, but one must work hard to remain stupid.” - Benjamin Franklin So flat Earthers, man-made climate change deniers, and just science deniers.
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https://www.cnn.com/2016/12/21/politics/donald-trump-Hillary-Clinton-popular-vote-final-count/index.html
http://www.politifact.com/punditfact/tv/cnn/
http://www.politifact.com/punditfact/tv/fox/
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https://www.cnn.com/2016/12/21/politics/donald-trump-Hillary-Clinton-popular-vote-final-count/index.html
http://www.politifact.com/punditfact/tv/cnn/
http://www.politifact.com/punditfact/tv/fox/
“We are all born ignorant, but one must work hard to remain stupid.” - Benjamin Franklin So flat Earthers, man-made climate change deniers, and just science deniers.
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https://fivethirtyeight.com/features/donald-trump-is-winning-the-polls-and-losing-the-nomination/
https://fivethirtyeight.com/features/was-the-second-republican-debate-the-beginning-of-the-end-for-donald-trump/
https://fivethirtyeight.com/features/republicans-dont-like-donald-trump-as-much-as-they-used-to/
http://fivethirtyeight.com/features/dear-media-stop-freaking-out-about-donald-trumps-polls/
https://fivethirtyeight.com/features/trump-boom-or-trump-bubble/
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“We are all born ignorant, but one must work hard to remain stupid.” - Benjamin Franklin So flat Earthers, man-made climate change deniers, and just science deniers.
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As I stated, and as all the links attest if you had bothered to look at them, I was talking about the GOP primaries.
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Now
https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Rasmussen_Reports
https://fivethirtyeight.com/features/can-you-trust-polling-in-the-age-of-trump/
https://projects.fivethirtyeight.com/trump-approval-ratings/?ex_cid=rrpromo.
You have not provided a reason on why Silver is biased and the surveys have flaws.
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“We are all born ignorant, but one must work hard to remain stupid.” - Benjamin Franklin So flat Earthers, man-made climate change deniers, and just science deniers.
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for polls to be statistically correct it requires a random sample and has to be conducted in a way that doesn't infuence the outcome. That's very tough to do. If CNN sanctioned the polls then no way its a random sample. They are biased.
I am not debating fox vs cnn here, just the cnn polls.
all polls predicted that Trump will lose the election - that's proof enough.
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“We are all born ignorant, but one must work hard to remain stupid.” - Benjamin Franklin So flat Earthers, man-made climate change deniers, and just science deniers.
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https://realclearpolitics.com/epolls/2016/president/us/general_election_trump_vs_clinton-5491.html#polls
The biggest outliers were monmouth (6% lead - 3.6% margin of error, and nbc 5% lead - 2.73% margin of error).
So it seems nationally, the polls were actually pretty much dead on, much better than 2012 (off by about 3.2%), but worse than 2008 (which I think was about 0.4%).
For states:
Arizona: polls were off by 0.5%
https://www.realclearpolitics.com/epolls/2016/president/az/arizona_trump_vs_clinton_vs_johnson_vs_stein-6087.html
Colorado: underestimated Clinton by 2%
https://www.realclearpolitics.com/epolls/2016/president/co/colorado_trump_vs_clinton_vs_johnson_vs_stein-5974.html
Florida was about 1% off (and most polls showed within the margin of error)
https://www.realclearpolitics.com/epolls/2016/president/fl/florida_trump_vs_clinton_vs_johnson_vs_stein-5963.html
Georgia: 0.3% off
https://www.realclearpolitics.com/epolls/2016/president/ga/georgia_trump_vs_clinton_vs_johnson-5968.html
Iowa: 4 points off, but there wasn’t much polling going on there, and there had been none for nearly a week before the election.
Maine: 1.6. New Hampshire 0.3.
You ou can go through the list if you want: they got a lot of things wrong, specifically rust belt states, where they indeed got it very wrong (EVERYONE got that wrong, bra).
The idea that the polls are all wrong is not supported by the results of 2016: this argument, which is a fallacy of false equivalence, is wholly unsupported.
what is more, current opinion polls of trump do most assuredly tie up with current democratic wins across the country; trump is not popular.
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Getting the polls seriously wrong across a large swath of states, as you have admitted, is hardly insignificant.
Trump's national popularity is unimportant if he can still win reelection.
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As I pointed out, all the 12 final national polls were within (or just about at) their margin of error, meaning that despite you calling them incorrect, they were correct.
Now, you may claim that the polls were wrong over “large swath of states”, but again, no. The polls were outside their margin error I only a few states.
You may not like it, but the national polls have been show to be pretty accurate, and can be trusted when they indicate that Trump is one of the most unpopular presidents ever polled.
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http://www.rasmussenreports.com/public_content/politics/political_updates/prez_track_feb26
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In addition, you’ve picked a single outlier data point, and compared to another data point for Barack Obama, and exclude every other poll to have been conducted throughout the duration of the last 13
months, to show that the president isn’t the most unpopular president in recent history (given polling).
I know it’s may be emotionally easier for you to believe that if a guy you like appears unpopular, it’s because of the fake media or fake data, etc: but please don’t manufacture faulty arguments based on text book cherry picking, and literally sitting there with a straight face and attempting to argue black is white.
By any objective measurement the data shows he’s incredibly unpopular; the producers of the data have been shown to be broadly accurate, local and state elections across the country are broadly mirroring this unpopularity by generating massive swings towards democrats, meaning that this is literally the only data or evidence based conclusion you can make.
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WTF are you looking at???? Do you not understand how to read polls???? If you can, that's a flat-out lie!! Here are the final 10 (and there are only 10 polls that were used in the final totals);
You'll notice that of the 10 polls that were used in the final totals; 6 of the 10 polls were outside of their Margin of Error (MoE), 5 of the 10 polls were more than .5 points outside of their Margin of Error (MoE), and one of the 10 polls that was rather far off refused to publish their Margin of Error (MoE). Any poll that is wrong beyond their Margin of Error (MoE) is a failed poll. 7 of the 10 polls were utter failures. Since almost all of the polls were failures at predicting the benchmark poll results (the 2016 election results) and only the outliers proven to be accurate, and since pollsters made excuses for their failures, much like you are doing, instead of changing their methods to make them more accurate, it makes sense to continue looking at the outliers.
One question; are you going to continue to lie about this issue? If that is your intention, then there is really no point in my continuing this discussion with you.
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lets start at the beginning. Firstly, if you think a poll that is 0.5% outside of its margin of error is “a failed poll”, then I don’t think you fully understand or appreciate what it is that the margin of error actually means. MoE is a statistcal term that tracks the deviation of the results that could be possible even if the sample is perfect. Being just outside the margin of error by 0.5% isn’t a failed poll, it actually a poll that has a quantifiable imperfect sample; effectively meaning that errors in methodology count for 0.5% of the reported deviation: that’s actually pretty good, despite your unsupported claims otherwise.
it maybe wise to educate yourself as to how this works:
https://ropercenter.cornell.edu/support/polling-fundamentals-total-survey-error/
margin of of error applies to the individual results; not the margin. The results were 48 for clinton, and 46 for trump, so each survey must have results within that margin of error for each candidates results:
From this, 7/10 of the listed ones were absolutely within the margin of error: (1,3,4,5,6,7,9)
#2 out of the remaining over estimated trumps support compared to Hilary given the margin, (the victory margin was also within the margin of error too),
the two remaining, one (#8) was outside its margin of error by 0.3%, which is pretty damned good and only one the last ipsos poll which underscored Hillary and trump, with the margin only 0.7% outside the margin of error (technically you should be using 2x margin of error for comparrirons of two elements).
Even worse for you, other than not fully understanding the statistics; even if you applied the worst case errors to opinion polls, with the poll average under representing support vs opposition by 1%, Donald Trump is still clown shows by any measure.
The bottom line here, is that you are conflating inaccuracy with incorrectness. The polls, while within the margin error appeared to give a systematic bias when averaged of about 1% to Hillary.
You are not arguing that the current opinion polls are 1% wrong, you are arguing that because they were 1% wrong they were 100% wrong; and thus they are 100% wrong now.
This is doesn’t even make any sense, and seems like a simple logically obtuse way of pretending your guy is not horribly unpopular.
The bottom line is that I am relying on an average of multiple different polls, all of which appear to have been broadly accurate for the election, you are relying on absolutely no data whatsoever; and are simply trying to argue that the data is wrong. Unfortunately claiming the polls are inaccurate doesn’t automatically make trump popular.
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Noone wanted him to be president but in the end they picked what they felt was only option left because Hillary was the mean girl bully of the school.
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You are still L@Gooberry
The bold polls, 5,6,7,8,9, and 10 are ALL outside their margin of error. Polls 6,7,8,9, and 10 are ALL MORE THAN A POINT BEYOND THEIR MARGIN OF ERROR.
Since you continue to LIE about the polling results, which are in full view, there is no point in continuing this discussion. I have proven the polls cannot be trusted.
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What in earth are you smoking???
Clinton won 48/46. A margin of 2.1
ABC Poll 5, clinton 49, trump 46. Off by 1%/0% margin off by the 1%.
All less than 2.5% from the real values. You said it was outside margin of error: BS.
Fox News poll 6, clinton 48 trump 44 (-2) margin off by 2%. All three numbers smaller than the 2.5% margin of error. You said that was outside of margin of error: BS.
Are you insane, or are you literally incapable of subtracting one number from another?
Let me explain how MoE works.
If a poll gives clinton 44%, and trump 44% and the margin of error is 4%, this number means clinton could be as high as 48 and as low as 40%. The same for trump. This is spelt out in the link.
I’m rapidly coming to the conclusion you don’t understand how the statistics work, and have no idea how to recognize when a poll is or is not within its margin of error.
you also literally ignored every other part of my post.
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Trump won 46% of the vote.
Clinton won 48% of the vote.
Any poll that gave clinton and trump a %age that is less than the poll margin of error away from those values is “within the margin of error”.
abc poll 5 was off by 1/0%, Fox News poll 6 was off by 0/2%, all those numbers are within the 2.5% margin of error.
Despite your vehement assertions to the contrary, 0%, 1% and 2% are all numbers that are smaller than 2.5%.
I don’t know you don’t seem to be able to comprehend basic number comparison, but no amount of assertions that a poll that gets both candidates percentages within 2% is “way outside the margin of error”, of 2.5% makes it true.
Please enlighten me, how on earth do you work out that a poll with a margin of error of 2.5% and both candidates totals within 2% is “ way outside the margin of error.”
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Outright false statement. Using your chart.
“We are all born ignorant, but one must work hard to remain stupid.” - Benjamin Franklin So flat Earthers, man-made climate change deniers, and just science deniers.
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“We are all born ignorant, but one must work hard to remain stupid.” - Benjamin Franklin So flat Earthers, man-made climate change deniers, and just science deniers.
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When a poll says clinton will win the popular vote 49 - 46%, and she wins the popular vote by 48-46% that poll is really ****ing accurate.
I’m sorry you live in an alternate reality where a poll that predicts the actual result within two percentage points is somehow “wrong”, and “fundamentally flawed”.
You are literally arguing black is white here, but I’m glad you’ve suddenly dropped the “they are all outside the margin of error” argument, I’m figuring this is because you realize you completely fudges the map.
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could you please stop disagreeing with objective reality? Is getting obtuse now.
Also, please stop shouting at me about how all the polls are all wrong when clearly you do not know what you’re talking about: I’ve shown the final national polls were pretty accurate.
So aside from your own personal assertions, you have no arguments and seem simply to be gunning for the prize of how many times an individual can be wrong in a single thread.
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You keep saying they’re wrong. You’re literally making this claim up.
youve said the polls you cited got it wrong (they didn’t), that they weren’t measuring the popular vote (they were), that they were massively inaccurate (they weren’t), and most of them were outside of their margin for error (they weren’t).
I have disproven your claims; I have demonstrated how these national polls were indeed accurate.
If all you have to say is just an assertion about how wrong I am; rather than any sort of evidence to show you’re right, then quite frankly I’m going to write you off as yet another trump supporting conservatives who cannot distinguish the difference from reality and what they want to be reality: as quite frankly, I have shown everything our have said thus far to be false.
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You keep saying they’re wrong. You’re literally making this claim up.
youve said the polls you cited got it wrong (they didn’t), that they weren’t measuring the popular vote (they were), that they were massively inaccurate (they weren’t), and most of them were outside of their margin for error (they weren’t).
I have disproven your claims; I have demonstrated how these national polls were indeed accurate.
If all you have to say is just an assertion about how wrong I am; rather than any sort of evidence to show you’re right, then quite frankly I’m going to write you off as yet another trump supporting conservatives who cannot distinguish the difference from reality and what they want to be reality: as quite frankly, I have shown everything our have said thus far to be false.
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https://www.cnn.com/2016/12/21/politics/donald-trump-Hillary-Clinton-popular-vote-final-count/index.html
http://abcnews.go.com/Politics/hillary-clinton-officially-wins-popular-vote-29-million/story?id=44354341
https://www.hollywoodreporter.com/news/official-hillary-clinton-wins-popular-vote-by-29m-958803
http://time.com/4608555/hillary-clinton-popular-vote-final/
https://www.npr.org/sections/thetwo-way/2016/11/09/501393501/shades-of-2000-clinton-surpasses-trump-in-popular-vote-tally
There are more sources but I do not want to list them.
“We are all born ignorant, but one must work hard to remain stupid.” - Benjamin Franklin So flat Earthers, man-made climate change deniers, and just science deniers.
I friended myself!
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when all ten national polls you cited are incredibly close to predicting the national vote; with all either within or incredibly close the margin of error; it shows those polls are correct.
I’ve provided a pretty detailed set of reasons why those polls are accurate, and thus far every reason you’ve given to explain why they are inaccurate has been shown to be false (as I summarized).
As the national polls were broadly accurate, its reasonable to presume the opinion polls are too.
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when all ten national polls you cited are incredibly close to predicting the national vote; with all either within or incredibly close the margin of error; it shows those polls are correct.
I’ve provided a pretty detailed set of reasons why those polls are accurate, and thus far every reason you’ve given to explain why they are inaccurate has been shown to be false (as I summarized).
As the national polls were broadly accurate, its reasonable to presume the opinion polls are too.
As I said before, your objections appear mostly to do with you not wanting the polls to be accurate more than you have a reason to believe they weren’t.
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